Why is the exchange rate I get worse than the one I looked up?
The single most expensive button abroad
When a card terminal or an ATM offers to charge you in your home currency, decline it. That is dynamic currency conversion, and it is consistently one of the worst rates you will be offered — the terminal operator sets the rate and keeps the margin.
Always choose to pay in the local currency and let your own card issuer convert. It feels less certain and it is almost always cheaper. This one habit saves more than shopping around for a better exchange office.
Where not to exchange money
Airport counters, by a wide margin. They pay high rent for a captive audience with no alternatives, and the spread reflects exactly that.
If you need cash on arrival, withdraw a small amount from a bank ATM instead — and decline the machine's conversion offer for the same reason as above.
Can you time it?
Not reliably, and be sceptical of anyone selling that certainty. Exchange rates respond to interest rates, inflation, trade flows and politics, and professional forecasters get the direction wrong routinely.
For travel money the practical approach is splitting your exchange across a few dates rather than trying to catch one perfect moment. You give up the best case and you avoid the worst one.